The sustainable-fuel market is nascent, complex, and growing fast. Traders that develop an in-depth understanding across different fuels, feedstocks, and regions can gain a competitive advantage.

The Sustainable Fuel Market Industry is expected to grow from 291.09 (USD Billion) in 2025 to 1,120.99 (USD Billion) till 2034, at a CAGR (growth rate) is expected to be around 16.16% during the forecast period (2025 - 2034).

The introduction of the ISCC PoC framework is a significant development that aims to facilitate the recognition of certified sustainable fuel use by final consumers in sectors like aviation and maritime, particularly under regulations like the EU ETS and FuelEU Maritime. The PoC framework offers a solution to the PoS unavailability challenge, potentially enabling downstream users to claim emissions reductions.

Driven by ambitious climate targets and supportive legislation, the demand for fossil fuels will decline significantly in Europe, paving the way for a substantial increase in the production and consumption of sustainable fuels like biofuels and RFNBOs. While domestic production of sustainable fuels is projected to grow, significant deficits, particularly in e-fuels and potentially green hydrogen, suggest a strong future market for both domestic production scale-up and imports. The traditional refining sector will face significant challenges and consolidation, highlighting the need for strategic shifts towards biofuel co-processing or dedicated biorefining to maintain viability. The development of efficient and safe transportation infrastructure for green molecules will be crucial for ensuring the security of supply in this emerging sustainable fuel marketplace.

The future of biomass valorization for energy transition will likely involve a diversified portfolio of technologies, each playing a role depending on the available feedstock, the desired energy vector, and the specific application. While mature technologies can provide immediate contributions, further research, development, and deployment are needed to scale up promising but less mature pathways that can utilize larger resource potentials and offer better environmental integration through co-product valorization and nutrient recycling. The economic viability of these pathways will be crucial for their widespread adoption.

Needs for Biomass and Molecules for first, second & third generation biofuel production